Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S.
Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and
dry conditions. Meanwhile, a co*pact mid-level shortwave trough is
forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington
coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest
ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level
ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around
Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest
U.S.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day
2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific
Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned
shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels
(ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning
ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores.
Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit
further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest
U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too
low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time.

...Winds and Relative Humidity...
Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to
the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early
as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger
mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally
critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of
critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a
Critical probability area.

A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions
across the Western United States is expected to acco*pany at least a
partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near
the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much
uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area.

..Elliott.. 07/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...