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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO...

With strong surface winds (and higher gusts) along with around 15%
RH, critical fire weather is likely for a few hours in parts of
southeastern Idaho. Winds of 20-25 mph are expected with areas of
higher winds possible due to terrain enhancement.

Elsewhere, temperatures near or above 100 F will co*bine with a
developing lee trough to bring elevated fire weather concerns in
parts of the central High Plains. Some guidance also suggests
isolated convection could form along the surface trough during the
afternoon. Thermodynamic profiles will be marginal for
thunderstorms, but storms that are able to develop would produce
little precipitation and lightning.

..Wendt.. 07/17/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022/

...Synopsis...
In the mid-levels, the strong upper low over the Pacific Northwest
will move eastward, flattening the prominent ridge across much of
the Southwestern US. Strong flow aloft will linger over the Rockies
and Great Basin, bolstering surface flow ahead of a cold front
moving eastward. Dry downslope flow should overlap with warm
conditions supporting elevated to near critical fire weather
concerns from the Great Basin, eastward into central ID.

...Northern Great Basin to the Snake River Plain...
As the primary Pacific trough shifts eastward through the day, a
belt of stronger mid-level flow should remain in place from northern
NV, into southeastern OR and central and eastern ID. Deep vertical
mixing, well timed with diurnal minimum RH evident on area model
soundings, will enhance surface gusts already bolstered by a
strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the cold front. Ensemble
guidance shows high probabilities for sustained surface winds of 20
mph with locally stronger gusts likely in the higher terrain. With
area fuels under considerable drought stress, widespread elevated to
near-critical fire weather conditions are expected ahead of the
front. Sustained critical conditions are more uncertain, but appear
most likely across portions of central and eastern ID where flow
aloft is stronger. A critical area may beco*e necessary in future
outlooks should greater confidence in sustained 25+ mph winds
develop.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...