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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...RATON MESA VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the Mid-Atlantic and in the vicinity of the Raton Mes on
Saturday.

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper ridge will be present across the West into the
High Plains region on Saturday. In the Midwest and East, rather
broad upper troughing is expected. Flow aloft will be modest aside
from some areas that will be influenced by MCVs. The surface pattern
will be nebulous across much of the CONUS. A weak surface low is
forecast within North Carolina into southern Virginia. A weak
surface trough is also anticipated in the southern/central Plains.

...Parts of Carolinas into southeast Virginia...
As the subtropical ridge intensifies in the Atlantic, some stronger
mid-level flow is possible across parts of the Carolinas into the
southern Mid-Atlantic. There is uncertainty as to how much
destabilization will occur Saturday afternoon in part due to
potential cloud cover from earlier convection/weak MCV moving in
from the southeast. Furthermore, there is potential for early
convective activity along the North Carolina/Virginia border near a
weak surface low/boundary. Model guidance is consequently variable
in the amount of storm coverage. Where storms do develop during the
afternoon, effective shear around 30 kts will promote marginally
organized convection capable of damaging winds.

...Raton Mesa Vicinity...
Model guidance is in general agreement that a weak perturbation will
rotate around the upper ridge and promote scattered convection from
the Sangre de Cristos into the Raton Mesa. Modest low-level moisture
is expected to bu shunted up against the terrain. Low/mid-level
lapse rates will be steep and 0-6 km shear will be 30-40 kts.
Temperature-dewpoint spreads may be near 30 F and lead to outflow
dominant storms. Some CAMs suggest a clustering may occur in parts
of southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Though some
uncertainty remains, potential for isolated severe gusts appears
high enough to included 5% severe wind probabilities.

...Kansas/western Oklahoma...
Some showers/convection are probable to be ongoing in association
with one or more MCVs from central Oklahoma into northeast
Kansas/southeast Nebraska. At present, an outflow boundary is
possible within northeast/central Kansas into western Oklahoma.
While this may provide some focus for storm development during the
afternoon. However, given the position behind earlier MCV activity
and stronger mid-level winds generally displaced westward, storm
initiation and overall severity of storms that do develop is too
uncertain for unconditional severe probabilities.

..Wendt.. 07/19/2024