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SPC MD 1678

SPC MD 1678

[html]MD 1678 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
       
MD 1678 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1678
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Areas affected...portions of southeast Louisiana into extreme
southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 181822Z - 181915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible over the next few
hours. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular convection has recently organized into
an MCS with some bowing characteristics associated with merging cold
pools. This bowing feature is progressing into a strongly unstable
environment (i.e. 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) driven by strong surface
heating and low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints. Though vertical wind
shear is weak, this bowing structure/cold pool progressing into this
buoyant airmass may promote the development of strong wind gusts,
and a severe gust cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, the severe
threat should be sparse, so a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30989158 31269090 31139000 30848942 30488937 30148949
            29968988 30079049 30179092 30369106 30989158


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Source: SPC MD 1678 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1678.html)