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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
The upper pattern is forecast to be characterized by western CONUS
ridging and central/eastern CONUS troughing throughout the period
with only a slight westward shift in these features anticipated. A
low-amplitude, convectively augmented shortwave trough will likely
be moving across the central Plains early Saturday morning, embedded
within the northwesterly flow aloft between the western ridge and
eastern trough. This shortwave trough is expected to continue
southeastward through OK and into TX. Farther west, a pair of
shortwave troughs is expected to move through the northwest
periphery of the upper ridge. The southernmost shortwave will likely
move along the central CA coast throughout the period while the
northernmost shortwave approaches the northern CA/Pacific Northwest
coast early Sunday.

At the surface, high pressure is expected to remain over the OH
Valley, with a weak stationary front along the southern periphery of
this high across the Southeast. Lee troughing is also anticipated
through the period as well, with moderate low-level moisture east of
this troughing across the majority of the Plains. Outflow from
showers and thunderstorms associated with the central Plains
shortwave trough may exist as well, but low predictability limits
confidence in its presence and location.

Thunderstorms appear probable along the stationary front from the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, as well as beneath the upper
ridging across much of the western CONUS and in the vicinity of the
central/southern Plains shortwave trough. In each of these areas,
limited vertical shear is expected to limit overall storm strength,
tempering the severe potential. The only exception is across the
Mid-Atlantic, where enhanced mid-level flow between the eastern
CONUS troughing and subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic may
support stronger shear and better storm organization. Damaging gusts
are possible within any of the stronger storms over this area.

..Mosier.. 07/18/2024