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Mesoscale Discussion 1664
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0918 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Delmarva region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548...

Valid 170218Z - 170345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain likely across eastern Maryland and
into Delaware and southern New Jersey. WW 548 has been locally
extended in time to address this potential.

DISCUSSION...The line of storms that has recently crossed from
eastern PA into northern and central NJ has shown a gradual
weakening trend in IR imagery and lightning trends - likely the
result of an undercutting outflow noted in regional radar imagery.
As such, the severe threat for much of this line appears to be
waning. However, further south across central to eastern MD, IR
imagery continues to show intensification of convection to the west
of Chesapeake Bay. The environment downstream of this activity
appears to be only modestly capped based on a modified 00 UTC WAL
sounding. While deep-layer wind shear remains marginal (around 25
knots based on the sounding), approximately 2000 J/kg MLCAPE remains
in place, which will support the potential for additional
intensification of somewhat organized clusters as storms move east
into DE and southern NJ. Wind gusts between 45-55 mph appear most
likely, but severe gusts will remain possible. WW 548 has been
extended in time until 03 UTC when these storms should reach the
coast.

..Moore.. 07/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   38627647 38797659 39047657 39307635 39457594 39497552
            39507521 39557493 39507468 39387454 39257451 38977489
            38807503 38547504 38517531 38497577 38577621 38627647