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Mesoscale Discussion 1639
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Far southeast Wisconsin into central and northeast
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 152306Z - 160100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...An organizing MCS across eastern Iowa is expected to move
into central and northeastern IL, and perhaps far southeast WI,
later this evening. Recent convective trends and high-res ensemble
guidance suggest one or more bowing segments will be possible; watch
issuance is expected in the near term.

DISCUSSION...MCS organization continues across central to eastern IA
with multiple measured and estimated severe wind gusts noted over
the past hour. Temperatures falling into the low 70s and upper 60s
in the wake of the line of storms indicates that a strong/deep cold
pool is beco*ing established. Recent high-res WoFS guidance has
assimilated these recent convective trends well and depicts at least
one, possibly two, more focused bowing segments emerging later this
evening across central to northern IL with winds possibly up to 70
knots. Additionally, favorable low-level wind shear (upwards of 30
knots) within the 0-3 km layer should support the potential for
embedded circulations with the line, especially north of any bowing
segments. Downstream watch issuance is expected within the next hour
to address this concern.

..Moore/Thompson.. 07/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40199050 40828992 41758936 42448921 42748904 42908876
            42918805 42848760 42488718 41988681 41818664 41458661
            40978681 40608713 40348759 40068821 39818877 39818902
            39818934 39868975 39919006 39999029 40149049 40199050