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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains
across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday,
reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At
the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is
expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a
belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across
the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. 

Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be
over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning,
with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low
in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of
this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH
Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm
development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of
it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will
be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture.
However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the
potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the
length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level
flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into
western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong
to severe storms. 

Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the 
the central High Plains. This may help support the development of
strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain
into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate
vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and
the potential for organization into a more organized linear system.
Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area.

..Mosier.. 07/14/2024