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Mesoscale Discussion 1497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471...

Valid 170040Z - 170215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471
continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells with a history of severe gusts and hail will
likely continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts (some
significant) and large hail across portions of central and southern
Nebraska this evening. Additional storm development is possible
though uncertain.

DISCUSSION...As of 0025 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
well-organized supercell thunderstorms ongoing near a baroclinic
zone/outflow boundary across Custer and Valley/Greeley Counties in
central Nebraska. Over the last hour, these storms have produced
measured gusts of 64kt at KODX and 78kt at KBBW, along with several
reports of severe hail. Despite modest lapse rates and vertical
shear, a moderate to strongly unstable environment (2500-3000 J/kg
of MLCAPE), will likely continue to support these storms as they
pose a risk for damaging outflow winds (some 75+ mph) and large hail
over the next couple of hours. The risk for significant wind gusts
may persist as some additional storm development and upscale growth
into a small MCS is possible to the south and east. However,
convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain with southern extent
due to warming mid-level temperatures, decreasing vertical shear and
increasing inhibition.

..Lyons.. 07/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41620026 41589784 40059690 40089936 41620026