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Mesoscale Discussion 1495
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Areas affected...North-central into southeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 162053Z - 162300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of hail and locally damaging wind gusts
remain possible into this evening. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...The earlier supercell that moved from north-central
into northeast NE has weakened, but recent redevelopment has been
noted across north-central NE near a weak surface boundary, and also
near the differential heating zone/outflow boundary left in the wake
of earlier convection. MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and effective shear
of 30-40 kt will continue to support a threat of organized storms. A
couple of supercells capable of hail and locally damaging wind gusts
may emerge out of redeveloping convection and spread southeastward,
with some cell mergers and clustering possible by early evening. 

Relatively weak midlevel lapse rates, warm temperatures aloft, and
weak low-level flow may continue to temper the severe hail/wind
threat to some extent, but any sustained supercells and/or organized
clusters that can develop could pose a sufficient threat to support
watch issuance later this afternoon.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42889972 42429843 41819720 41219654 40839671 40719745
            40839824 41329945 41689994 41860020 42440092 42740054
            42889972