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Mesoscale Discussion 1492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into northern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161736Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and
damaging winds should spread slowly eastward this afternoon. Watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...There are rather prevalent low/mid-level clouds
associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over parts of
western/northern VA into western MD. To the east of these clouds,
filtered diurnal heating should continue this afternoon along/south
of a weak boundary that extends across southern portions of the
Mid-Atlantic. As surface temperatures climb further into the 80s and
90s across the warm sector, weak to moderate instability will aid
thunderstorm development. This process has already begun across
parts of south-central VA into northern/central NC. Low/mid-level
flow should remain fairly modest across these regions, but some
enhancement to the mid-level westerlies (around 20-30 kt) associated
with the weak shortwave trough could foster convective organization
this afternoon. A mix of pulse thunderstorms and loosely organized
multicells should spread slowly eastward over the next few hours.
Isolated gusty to perhaps damaging downdraft winds should be the
main threat as low-level lapse rates beco*e steepened. Occasional
marginally severe hail may also occur, as mid-level temperatures are
seasonably cool. Current expectations are for the overall severe
threat to remain rather isolated/marginal through the rest of the
afternoon, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Hart.. 07/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   39647710 39657641 39607586 39197541 38707560 37697621
            37017671 36197743 35817813 35767862 35957935 36177997
            36677979 37157932 37687859 38807763 39647710