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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MD/DC/VA REGION...AND
SOUTHERN AZ...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the central Plains 
this afternoon and evening, and possibly across the lower Missouri
Valley overnight.  Damaging to isolated severe gusts are also
expected this afternoon from Maryland southward across Virginia, and
over southern Arizona.

...Central NE...
A broad upper ridge is present over much of the central/southern
Plains and Rockies today.  Several minor shortwave troughs are
traversing the northern periphery of the ridge across the WY/NE
vicinity.  These features will interact with a weak surface boundary
extending from central MO into central NE, resulting in scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Most 12z CAM solutions show a cluster of thunderstorms forming by
late afternoon over central NE.  These storms will track
southeastward toward the KS border during the evening.  A SLGT risk
area was considered for this area.  However, abundant mid-level
clouds will slow daytime heating, and mid-level winds and
temperatures are not particularly favorable for severe storms. 
Locally gusty/damaging winds will be possible with the stronger
cells, but the overall coverage/intensity of these storms is
uncertain.  Therefore will maintain MRGL risk at this time and
reconsider at the 20z update.

...Eastern CO/western KS...
Hot surface temperatures will result in steep low-level lapse rates
and a deeply mixed boundary layer this afternoon over parts of
eastern CO and western KS.  Scattered high-based thunderstorms are
expected to develop and spread slowly eastward across this area
through the evening.  Gusty outflow winds are expected, but weak
flow aloft and limited large scale forcing should limit the areal
coverage of severe threat.

...VA/MD...
Warm/humid conditions over eastern VA/MD will result in isolated to
widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms.  Forecast soundings show
poor mid-level lapse rates and weak flow in the lowest 6-7km, which
should limit convective organization and intensity.  Nevertheless, a
few cells may occasionally result in strong/damaging wind gusts
through early evening.

...AZ...
Water vapor imagery shows a weak vort max and plume of mid-level
moisture moving across northern Mexico.  This feature will likely
result in scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across
parts of southern and central AZ this afternoon and evening.  Hot
surface temperatures and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support
a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells.

..Hart/Dean.. 07/16/2022