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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
A threat of a few severe wind gusts or hail reports will persist
tonight from eastern Montana into North Dakota.

...Eastern MT into ND...
A batch of convection is currently propagating east/northeast across
east-central MT, with ample instability and midlevel lapse rates
downstream into western ND. Meanwhile, isolated cells with hail were
noted over southern SK, moving southeastward down the moist axis
with a shallow layer of 70 F dewpoints.

The weak midlevel disturbance rounding the upper ridge should
continue to aid convective potential tonight, and southerly 850 mb
winds will also increase out of the south. The 00Z GGW sounding
shows very steep midlevel lapse rates which will maximize updraft
strength. To the east, the 00Z BIS sounding shows sufficient
instability to support hail or severe gusts, though PWAT values per
GPS sensors are only averaging near 1.00". 

Farther south into western SD, convection persist across the Black
Hills region, and some of this could produce outflow which may
interact with the stronger instability to the north.

..Jewell.. 07/16/2022