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Mesoscale Discussion 1487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Areas affected...central into northeast Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...

Valid 151958Z - 152200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469
continues.

SUMMARY...A swath of strong to severe wind gusts is expected to
continue to develop with an organizing cluster of storms spreading
into the Jordan, Lake Fort Peck and Glasgow areas through 3-5 PM
MDT.  Areas east of WW 469 are being monitored for the possibility
of an additional severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis suggests that there remains
substantive lingering inhibition for the deepening mixed boundary
layer.  But it is weakening, with little to obstruct insolation
downstream of ongoing thunderstorm development.  And forced lift
along the leading edge of a strengthening cold pool has supported
intensifying convection in a band now east of the Harlowton and
Great Falls areas.  This still appears to be advancing
east-northeastward at up to around 40 kt.

Across the Fort Peck Lake vicinity, and areas between Jordan and
Glasgow, surface dew points remain in the upper 50s to near 60F. 
Although these may mix-out some as temperatures continue to warm
through the 90s F, thermodynamic profiles characterized very steep
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates probably will still be conducive
to further intensification of convection, including potential for
increasingly widespread severe wind gusts.   There has been a signal
within various model output, including a number of runs of the High
Resolution Rapid Refresh and the 12Z NAM, suggesting that an
increasingly organized convective system will be acco*panied by the
development of a strong rear inflow jet in excess of 50 kt by
22-23Z.

..Kerr.. 07/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   48300985 48900758 47800647 46670692 45980971 47380954
            48300985