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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA...AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms, including a risk of damaging
winds and hail, will continue across parts of the northern Rockies
and High Plains into tonight.

...Discussion...
Evolving convection across the U.S. continues to reflect the
reasoning and areal outlines as laid out in the prior outlook. 
Storms -- capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts --
continue moving across central Montana, within WW 469, where the
primary severe risk is expected through the remainder of the period.


Aside from minor line tweaks, no changes appear necessary.

..Goss.. 07/15/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022/

...MT/ND...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
moving across eastern OR.  This feature and its associated mid-level
speed max will track across ID into MT this afternoon.  Large-scale
lift ahead of the trough is already resulting in scattered
thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT, which will spread
eastward into central/eastern MT this afternoon and evening.  Hot
surface temperatures in the 90s or low 100s are expected, yielding a
deeply mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE.  This will
support high-based convection capable of locally damaging wind
gusts.  This activity will likely spread into western ND after dark.

Winds aloft weaken with southward extent, but at least isolated
strong to severe wind gusts will be possible into parts of
northern/eastern WY and western NE/SD this afternoon.