Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Areas affected...Parts of western into central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 151721Z - 151915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A developing cluster of thunderstorms is expected to
intensify and beco*e better organized east of the Continental
Divide.  This may be acco*panied by a developing swath of strong to
severe wind gusts across and south of the Great Falls vicinity into
central Montana (north through south of Lewistown) by 2-4 PM MDT.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of one notable short wave perturbation
progressing northeast of the Oregon Cascades, forcing for ascent has
supported a sustained cluster of thunderstorms now spreading into
and across the Continental Divide vicinity of western Montana.  This
activity appears to be focused near the nose of a 40-50 kt jet
streak around 500 mb, with associated momentum contributing to a
current forward propagation up to 40-45 kt.  

As forcing for ascent spread east of the higher terrain into areas
near and south of the Great Falls vicinity within the next few
hours, the environment appears likely to beco*e increasingly
conducive to renewed, intensifying thunderstorm development along an
associated strengthening surface cold pool.  In advance of the cold
pool, forecast soundings suggest that further insolation will
contribute to a seasonably warm and well-mixed boundary layer,
including large surface temperature/dew point spreads up to around
40 F, but also characterized by CAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg.
Coupled with strengthening deep-layer shear, the evolution of an
increasingly organized convective system seems possible, acco*panied
by increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts while
spreading into central Montana by 20-22Z.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   47601241 48121135 48380993 47750874 46800882 46250920
            45451212 46481174 47601241