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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the central Plains
vicinity on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A relatively stagnant upper flow regime will persist across the U.S.
Saturday, as a ridge remains dominant across the western and
south-central states.  Meanwhile, a trough will shift slowly
eastward across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, while a
second trough over eastern North America continues making gradual
eastward progress.  Within the northwesterly flow between the
western ridge and eastern trough, a series of vorticity maxima --
loosely functioning as a broader-scale short-wave trough -- will
move southeastward out of the northern Plains and across the Upper
Midwest through the period.

At the surface, a cold front will move slowly across the Pacific
Northwest, while a second/weaker front sags slowly southeastward
across the Midwest and central Plains.

...Central High Plains to northern Missouri...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at
the start of the period across portions of the northern and central
Plains, with lingering convection and associated boundaries a
co*plicating factor with respect to storm evolution/severe potential
later in the day Saturday.  

While limited severe risk may linger across the Dakotas and
Minnesota during the day, uncertainty prevails, precluding any
severe-weather probabilities across this region in this update.

From a larger-scale perspective, a surface front progged to extend
east-to-west across the central Plains will be a focus for
convective development.  Isolated storms may initially develop
across the central High Plains, while warm advection to the cool
side of the boundary also suggests late afternoon storm development,
as daytime heating contributes to a corridor of moderate
destabilization.  

As a south-southwesterly low-level jet develops during the evening,
isolated storms moving eastward across the High Plains may
interact/congeal with convection farther east, potentially yielding
an eastward-/southeastward-moving MCS across Kansas.  While this
scenario remains uncertain, the strengthening low-level jet beneath
40 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow suggests this potential.

In any case, gusty/locally damaging winds will be possible from
afternoon into the overnight hours, with any stronger storms.

..Goss.. 07/15/2022