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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Valid 151700Z - 161200Z

The forecast remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for
greater details.

..Wendt.. 07/15/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022/

...Synopsis...
Across the western US, the mid-level flow pattern will remain
dominated by a prominent anticyclone centered over the Southwest and
southern High Plains. To the west of the ridge, a Pacific trough
will move shoreward, bolstering mid-level southwesterly flow across
the Cascades and northern Rockies. Beneath the ridge, a strong
monsoonal surge will support scattered to widespread thunderstorms
across the Southwest. Meanwhile, very warm and dry conditions are
expected across the southern and central High Plains with
temperatures exceeding 100F. 

...Northern Great Basin...
Modest southwesterly flow along the periphery of the ridge will
support dry downslope flow off the Sierra across portions of
northern NV, southeastern OR and eastern ID. Surface RH below 15%
and winds near 15 mph will support elevated fire weather concerns
given area fuel ERC values above the 90th percentile. Winds should
gradually weaken overnight as the shortwave and stronger flow aloft
move quickly northeastward.

To the south and east, monsoonal moisture will support scattered
thunderstorms across portions of central and northeastern NV. Along
the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal plume, model soundings show
initially dry sub-cloud layers greater than 2km deep supporting dry
strikes over receptive fuels. Storm coverage and PWATs are forecast
to gradually increase through the day, supporting wetter storms.
However, the potential for a few drier strikes initially within
receptive fuels necessitates continuation of the IsoDryT area across
north/northeastern NV.

...Southwest KS and the Panhandles...
Beneath the center of a strong and sustained mid-level anticyclone,
a very warm airmass should develop across portions of the southern
and central High Plains this afternoon. Low-level southerly flow
bolstered by a weak lee trough/decaying cold front may support gusty
winds to 15-25 mph coincident with surface RH below 20%. Ongoing
drought and excessive heat (temps greater than 100F) will favor
curing of short-hour fuels and the possibility of Elevated fire
weather conditions. 

...Southern Cascades...
A gradual increase in low-level westerly flow is forecast today as
mid and upper-level winds strengthen with the passing trough. Hi-res
guidance indicates at least localized potential for winds greater
than 15 mph through terrain gaps and in the immediate lee of the
southern Cascades. Dry and warm conditions with humidity below 30%
may coincide with these gustier winds, supporting locally elevated
fire weather conditions across portions of OR. However, uncertainty
on the areal coverage of sustained elevated fire weather conditions
remains high, precluding any Elevated delineations.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...