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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms, including a risk of damaging
winds and hail, will be possible across parts of the northern
Rockies and High Plains today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will continue to be dominated by loosely
organized troughing in the eastern CONUS, and a strong high over the
southern Rockies region, with mean ridge northward across MT and SK.
In the West, a shortwave trough -- initially apparent in moisture-
channel imagery over southern WA, central OR and northern CA -- will
move northeastward to western MT and adjoining parts of northern/
western ID by 00Z.  A separate perturbation -- now evident over the
Great Basin -- will pivot northward then northeastward to WY by 00Z.
 Thereafter, the two features should phase and move through the mean
ridge, then reach the Dakotas and NE by 12Z tomorrow (with some
embedded, convective vorticity enhancement possible).

Downstream, a shortwave trough now over the upper Mississippi Valley
is associated with presently nonsevere thunderstorms north of a
surface warm front, in its aggregate UVV plume related to warm
advection and DCVA.  This perturbation should proceed southeastward
to the upper Ohio Valley, WV and eastern KY by the end of the
period.  Meanwhile, a long-lived tropical upper-tropospheric trough
(TUTT), with embedded cold-core low now between the FL Keys, western
Bahamas and north-central Cuba, should shift northwestward and begin
to phase with the southern fringes of the prevailing midlatitude
troughing.

The 11Z surface analysis showed a wavy, quasistationary, weakening
frontal zone from a low over western NC across northern GA, and
southern portions of AL/MS/LA/TX.  This boundary should move little
through the period, while continuing to get more diffuse gradually.
A low was drawn in the SUX/FSD region, with warm to stationary front
southeastward across southeastern IA, southern IL, and central KY,
and weak cold front southwestward to eastern CO.  A trough extended
roughly northward from the low over the Red River (of the North)
Valley region.  The low should migrate southeastward to the UIN area
by 12Z tomorrow. However, with the MN shortwave trough outrunning
it, and DNVA expected over the low and nearby frontal segments,
potential for substantial convection appears minimal and very
conditional at best, once the morning clouds/convection moves away.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
over western portions of the outlook area this afternoon, mainly
over higher terrain where heating will erode MLCINH quickest. 
Severe gusts are the main concern, followed by isolated hail.

Activity should move generally northeastward over deeply well-mixed
subcloud layers that nonetheless will contain sufficient moisture to
maintain surface-based buoyancy.  MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range
is expected in a corridor from west-central through central/
northeastern MT and northward to near the international border, in
support of any clusters of convection that can organize a cold pool
for self-reinforcing storm-scale lift.  35-50-kt effective-shear
magnitudes will support convective organization.  Additional
activity may move from SK southeastward into eastern parts of the
outlook area overnight, offering wind/hail threat, though this is a
more-conditional scenario.  Farther south into parts of WY and
western SD, weaker buoyancy and ahead are expected, though isolated
severe wind in particular may be noted from the most vigorous
convection this afternoon and evening.

...FL...Mid-Atlantic to south TX...
Widely scattered thunderstorms -- associated with all the eastern
troughing (midlatitude and TUTT-related) and along and south of the
remnant low-level frontal zone -- will be possible.  Activity should
peak in coverage and intensity this afternoon, as diurnal heating
and related lift maximize preferentially near the front, outflow/
differential-heating boundaries, and sea breezes.

A relative max in marginal severe potential (wind and hail) appears
over parts of central/southern FL, where the TUTT-related cooling
aloft, around -9 to -10 deg C at 500 mb, contributes to somewhat
steeper lapse rates than typical for this time of year, and with
surface dewpoints in the 70s F, around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE from midday
into afternoon away from convection.  Otherwise, while very isolated
strong-severe gusts or hail cannot be ruled out elsewhere within the
large corridor from the Mid-Atlantic to south TX, the co*bined
vertical-shear/buoyancy parameter space appears unfavorable for
organized severe overall.  Potential appears too isolated and
unfocused on meso-alpha and larger scales at this time for other
unconditional severe-outlook area(s).

..Edwards/Mosier.. 07/15/2022