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Mesoscale Discussion 1483
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Areas affected...Portions of New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 141916Z - 142145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong/gusty winds will be possible with
thunderstorms over the next few hours. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...19Z surface analysis shows a front along/near the coast
of New England. Even with only modest daytime heating and some
cloudiness, a moist low-level airmass has aided in the development
of weak instability this afternoon. Scattered convection has
developed this afternoon along/near the front from parts of coastal
NH into ME. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds preceding an
upper trough extending over much of the Northeast are present across
this region. Around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear should prove
favorable for updraft organization, with both multicells and
marginal supercells possible. The weak instability should temper the
overall severe threat to some extent, but isolated marginally severe
hail and strong/gusty winds appear possible with the more robust
cores. In addition to the ongoing activity, other isolated
convective development may occur across parts of southern New
England (portions of eastern MA into RI). This area will locally
have greater instability available (around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE), but
convective coverage is more uncertain. Regardless, watch issuance is
not expected owing to the overall marginal/isolated nature of the
severe threat through the rest of the afternoon.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...

LAT...LON   42137067 41927058 41567074 41397164 41757171 42277164
            43277139 44337049 45036912 45376738 45126706 44846743
            44626810 44206947 43667023 42867075 42527075 42137067