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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms, including local risk for strong wind gusts
and hail, will be possible across parts of the northern High Plains
on Friday. Local severe risk may also occur across portions of the
Upper Midwest during the day.

...Synopsis...
A generally stagnant pattern aloft will persist Friday, with
pronounced western and central U.S. ridging flanked by northeastern
Pacific and eastern North America troughing.  Weak short-wave
features progressing through anticyclonic flow aloft will continue
to support weak surface frontal progressions across the northern
Rockies and northern Plains through the period.

...Northern Rockies/northern High Plains area...
Another day of heating/modest destabilization is expected over the
northern Intermountain region, ahead of another in a series of
short-wave troughs progressing eastward within the belt of stronger,
anticyclonic flow around the northern periphery of stout/persistent
upper ridging.  As in prior days, this will result in renewed,
isolated convective development across the region.  Given ample flow
aloft to support locally organized, eastward-progressing storms, a
few stronger convective elements will again beco*e capable of
producing gusty/damaging winds and marginally severe hail locally.

During the evening, development of a southeasterly low-level jet
over the northern High Plains may aid in continuation of ongoing
storms, potentially spreading into the western Dakotas through
evening, along with possible/local severe risk.

...Parts of the Upper Midwest vicinity...
A rather pronounced mid-level trough cresting the ridge and shifting
southeastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley region at the
start of the period may be supporting ongoing/warm-advection-aided
convection Friday morning.  Minimal/local risk for gusty winds may
then continue through the morning, spreading southeastward across
southeastern Minnesota/northeastern Iowa and roughly the southern
half of Wisconsin and adjacent northern Illinois.

As the associated cold front shifts southeastward through the day,
some southwestward development of convection may occur, perhaps into
portions of west-central Illinois and northeastern Missouri through
the afternoon and evening.  Locally gusty/damaging winds and hail
would be possible, before diminishing during the evening hours.

..Goss.. 07/14/2022