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Mesoscale Discussion 1460
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into far southern NY
and CT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460...461...462...

Valid 122002Z - 122130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460, 461,
462 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds and hail will develop eastward
this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic. A downstream watch may be
needed for parts of southern New York, New Jersey, and the Delmarva
Peninsula.

DISCUSSION...At 20Z, a robust supercell with intense inbound
velocities per recent KLWX radar data is present over the far
eastern WV Panhandle. This thunderstorm will be capable of producing
both large hail and severe wind gusts in the short term as it
continues eastward into far northern VA and approaches the DC metro
and eventually parts of central MD. Additional strong to severe
thunderstorms are ongoing along/near the MD/PA border. The
environment downstream of this activity into central MD and northern
VA will likely remain favorable for maintaining intense updrafts,
with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt both
present. Severe/damaging wind gusts should beco*e the main severe
threat as convection grows upscale into one or more bowing clusters,
but isolated large hail may also occur with any supercell that can
persist.

Convection in eastern PA has struggled to strengthen so far this
afternoon, even though the environment remains favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms. If activity in eastern PA does eventually
intensify, it would pose some severe threat into NJ and perhaps
southern NY. The thunderstorms moving into central MD should
eventually pose mainly a damaging wind threat with eastward extent
into the Delmarva Peninsula later this afternoon and evening. A
downstream watch may be needed for parts of southern NY, NJ, and the
Delmarva Peninsula.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39187911 39867752 41157671 41507560 41427332 41157315
            40587355 40387393 39747407 38967478 38487512 38497697
            38907893 39187911