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Mesoscale Discussion 1456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Areas affected...portions of northern and eastern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121758Z - 122000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging gusts may occur through
the afternoon with the stronger storms. A WW issuance is unlikely
given the sparse nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular storms have recently developed near the
international border as the boundary layer has sufficiently heated
and convective temperatures have been breached. These storms are
developing within a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime, with a 500
mb wind max currently overspreading the region, contributing to 40+
kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. As such, the stronger storms
have the potential to organize into longer-lived multicellular
co*plexes, transient supercells, or short line segments. RAP
forecast soundings show 8+ C/km lapse rates extending from the
surface up to 700 mb, contributing to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE and
associated potential for damaging gusts. -20C temperatures around
500 mb also suggest that a couple brief instances of severe hail are
also possible. The relatively highest severe potential may be
realized in a few hours as a more organized cluster/line of storms
across southwest Ontario crosses the border and moves into central
MN in the 19-20Z time frame. Nonetheless, the overall severe threat
should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not currently expected.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   48809063 47569089 46739112 46169283 46209380 46469473
            47549539 48559601 49119592 48809063