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Mesoscale Discussion 1455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Areas affected...Portions of WV into northern VA...western/central
MD...and DC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 121648Z - 121915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for scattered damaging winds and isolated hail
should increase this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
probably be needed.

DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have developed as of 1645Z
near the OH/WV border. This activity is occurring just ahead of a
weak surface cold front. These thunderstorms and additional
convective development should spread eastward across much of WV
through the afternoon. With robust diurnal heating occurring and the
presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, around
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is expected to be present across the warm
sector ahead of this activity. This region will be on the southern
periphery of a strong mid-level jet over the Northeast, but modestly
enhanced mid-level westerlies should still support around 30-40 kt
of deep-layer shear. A mix of multicell clusters and marginal
supercells should occur given the favorable shear. Thunderstorms may
also develop along a pre-frontal trough over parts of northern
VA/western MD and vicinity later this afternoon as residual
convective inhibition eventually erodes. As low-level lapse rates
steepen and DCAPE increases, damaging downdraft winds will beco*e a
concern as thunderstorms gradually increase in coverage and
intensity. Some severe hail may also occur with any cells that can
remain discrete given the modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates
aloft. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will probably be needed in the
next couple of hours as more convection develops.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   38378242 39578079 39717948 39717616 39507616 39027647
            38587660 38377702 38147825 37837916 37678026 37618129
            37808222 38378242