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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MONTANA VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing locally gusty/damaging winds will
be possible across portions of the Southeast, and parts of the
Montana vicinity, on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
While ridging aloft will prevail over the southwestern and central
portions of the country, troughing/cyclonic flow will affect eastern
North America, as well as western Canada and the Pacific Northwest.

At the surface, a weakening front will sag southeastward across the
eastern U.S., while a cold front crosses the Pacific Northwest
through the period.

...The Southeast...
As a weakening/frontolytic boundary sags southward across the Mid
South and southern Appalachians, and reaches a position from
southeastern Virginia to the central Gulf Coast states during the
afternoon, a moist/destabilizing airmass will contribute to
development of scattered thunderstorms.  

Convection is forecast to be only loosely organized in most areas
overall, but clustering/upscale growth of storms locally is
expected, with merging outflows and co*plex evolution.  Given the
moist airmass and potential for evolution of propagating storm
clusters, locally gusty/possibly damaging winds may occur in some
areas.  While any corridors of greater wind potential are difficult
to discern at this time due to the co*plex/mesoscale nature of such
potential, MRGL/5% wind levels will be maintained.  However, an
upgrade to SLGT risk over some portion of this area may be included
in later outlooks if a possible corridor of more concentrated wind
potential beco*es more apparent.

...Montana vicinity...
Diurnal heating -- and resulting modest airmass destabilization --
across Montana and vicinity will occur ahead of an advancing cold
front.  With ascent aided by the east-northeastward progression of a
subtle short-wave trough across the area, these factors will co*bine
to support development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
during the afternoon hours.

Given the deep mixed layer, and 35 to 45 kt diffluent mid-level flow
spreading across the area later in the period, potential for locally
gusty/damaging winds is apparent, as rather fast-moving storms/small
clusters cross Montana and possibly northwestern Wyoming beginning
during the afternoon, and continue through the evening hours.

..Goss.. 07/12/2022