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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
An upper-level ridge is forecast in the northern Rockies and
northern High Plains on Friday. This feature should move gradually
eastward into the Northern Plains by Sunday. A moist axis is
forecast to remain positioned from the mid Mississippi Valley
northeastward into eastern North Dakota over the three day period.
The models suggest that the strongest instability will be to the
north of the U.S. border, although moderate instability will be
possible each day along and near the moist axis from eastern North
Dakota into Iowa. Warm air aloft and capping will likely keep
convective development isolated each afternoon and evening. However,
any small convective cluster that can persist in the warm air aloft,
may develop a severe threat. The severe threat would be greatest in
areas that destabilize the most. Marginally severe wind gusts and
hail would be the primary threats.

...Monday/Day 7 to Tuesday/Day 8...
Thu upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the western
Great Lakes early in the week, as the moist axis remains from the
mid Mississippi Valley northwestward into eastern North Dakota.
Thunderstorms could develop along the instability corridor each
afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. A
capping inversion should keep convective coverage isolated. However,
any cell that can develop and persist into the early evening, could
be associated with a marginal severe threat. The greater severe
potential could be on Tuesday, as an upper-level trough and
associated cold front, move across the northern Plains. But this
solution is very uncertain due to the extended range of the
forecast.