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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...SOUTHEAST AND
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible across parts
of the northern Plains and mid Missouri Valley on Thursday. A
marginal wind-damage threat may also develop in parts of the
Southeast and Carolinas.

...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level ridge will be in place across the northern Rockies
and northern High Plains on Thursday. At the surface, a lee trough
will develop in the High Plains, with surface winds from the east
and southeast across much of the northern Plains. A moist airmass
will be located over the Dakotas extending southeastward into the
Mid Mississippi Valley. In spite of the warm air aloft, isolated
thunderstorms are expected to develop in parts of the central and
eastern Dakotas during the late afternoon or early evening. If a
cluster of storms can overco*e the capping inversion, then an
isolated severe threat would be possible during the early to mid
evening.

NAM forecast soundings at Fargo, North Dakota for 00Z/Friday have
MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and low to
mid-level lapse rates above 7.0 C/km. This environment should
support an isolated severe threat with potential for hail and
marginally severe wind gusts. However, the capping inversion could
be problematic concerning convective coverage. This should keep any
convection very isolated across the northern Plains from late
afternoon into early evening. Due to this along with uncertainty
concerning the distribution of instability, will go with a marginal
risk area for this outlook update. 

...Southeast/Carolinas...
An upper-level trough will move eastward through the central
Appalachians and lower Great Lakes on Thursday. At the surface, a
slow moving front will be positioned from the central Gulf Coast
States into the eastern Carolinas. Surface dewpoints in the lower
70s F will contribute to moderate instability in some areas ahead of
the front by afternoon. This co*bined with steep low-level lapse
rates near and after peak heating may be enough for a marginal
wind-damage threat. The threat could be greatest across parts of the
eastern Carolinas where instability and mid-level flow is forecast
to be a bit stronger.

..Broyles.. 07/12/2022