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Mesoscale Discussion 1450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Areas affected...Eastern/Central MN...Western WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111805Z - 112000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and damaging
wind gusts are possible this afternoon from central MN into western
WI.

DISCUSSION...A few strong thunderstorms have developed along the
western periphery of an outflow boundary moving south over the
northern MN/WI border vicinity. Early-day cloudiness has tempered
heating downstream of this outflow but recent clearing has allow
temperatures to climb into the mid 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints are in
the mid-60s, allowing for some modest buoyancy, particularly in
east-central MN where surface temperatures a bit warmer. A few
stronger storms are possible, but limited buoyancy should limit the
overall storm strength and severe coverage.

Farther west (into more of central MN), cumulus has been gradually
deepening ahead of a co*pact shortwave trough moving through
northern MN. Modest buoyancy has developed over this region as well,
with a few stronger storms possible this afternoon. Some isolated
hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible, but coverage is
currently expected to remain isolated.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   47119522 47329398 45919226 45419037 43819052 44479352
            45629526 47119522