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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, acco*panied by risk for damaging winds locally, are
expected across parts of the Northeast and central Appalachians
Tuesday.  Very isolated instances of marginally severe wind gusts
and hail may also occur over portions of the Upper Mississippi
Valley/western Upper Great Lakes are expected.

...The Northeast/central Appalachians vicinity...
As a cold front advances eastward across the Northeast, pre-frontal
heating of a rather moist boundary layer will result in 500 to 1000
J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across New England, and 1000 to 2000 J/kg
farther south, into the central Appalachians.

As the cold front advances, and disturbances aloft pass
northeastward across the region within background
cyclonic/southwesterly flow, ascent will support development of
showers and scattered thunderstorms within the destabilizing
airmass, from midday/early afternoon onward.

Given moderately strong/roughly unidirectional southwesterly flow at
low to mid levels, fast-moving storms should organize locally, with
the stronger storms/clusters beco*ing capable of producing locally
gusty winds and marginal hail.  Risk should continue through sunset,
spreading west-to-east with time, before eventually tapering off
through late evening.

...Portions of eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin...
Daytime heating beneath cold air aloft associated with upper
troughing will result in modest destabilization across portions of
the Upper Great Lakes vicinity.  As a short-wave trough -- embedded
within the broader cyclonic flow -- swings southeastward across the
Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes, afternoon showers and
scattered thunderstorms are expected.

While modest CAPE should limit severe potential overall, a few of
the strongest cells -- moving rather quickly southeastward -- may
produce gusty/locally damaging winds, and possibly marginal hail. 
Risk will continue late afternoon, tapering off thereafter due to
the onset of diurnal stabilization.

..Goss.. 07/11/2022