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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...Synopsis...
A dominant upper ridge will remain in place across the Four Corners
region over the next 48 hours. This will result in a largely
quiescent surface pressure regime that should limit the potential
for widespread wind-driven fire weather threats, though regional
concerns will likely develop across parts of Nevada. Monsoonal
moisture lingering across the Great Basin, as well as an influx of
moisture into the Pacific Northwest, will support another day of dry
thunderstorm potential. 

...Nevada...
Regional wind-driven fire weather concerns appear probable Tuesday
afternoon as southerly winds increase across southern NV in response
to a deepening thermal low. Sustained winds near 15 mph appear
likely, but weak flow aloft under the ridge will limit the potential
for 20+ mph winds outside of terrain-favored locations. Hot
temperatures and antecedent dry fuels should result in afternoon RH
values near 10-15% and elevated fire weather conditions. 

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Monsoonal moisture is forecast to continue increasing across the
Four Corners region and spread into the northern Great Basin. PWAT
values across central UT are expected to increase to above 0.8
inches, and a stronger QPF signal is noted for Tuesday co*pared to
previous days suggesting a lower potential for dry lightning.
However, northeast NV will see more limited moisture return atop a
dry, well-mixed boundary layer. Although storm coverage is expected
to be fairly isolated, forecast soundings show favorable
thermodynamic profiles for dry-thunderstorms over a region with
receptive fuels, warranting an isolated dry-thunderstorm risk. 

To the north, a weak mid-level wave is forecast to propagate into
the Pacific Northwest. Attendant mid-level moisture and lift ahead
of the wave should be adequate for convection, and dry low-level
conditions in the lee of the Cascades may support a few dry
thunderstorms. Ensemble guidance shows the strongest convective
signal across central to northeast OR, but latest fuel analyses and
reports from local offices indicate that fuels are not overly
receptive at this time.

..Moore.. 07/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...