Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS TO
LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage will be possible across
parts of Illinois into lower Michigan on Monday. Marginally severe
wind gusts and hail will be possible from Missouri
west-southwestward into the central High Plains.

...Mid MS Valley to Lower MI...

Seasonally strong mid-level short-wave trough will flatten the upper
ridge as it advances east-southeast across the Dakotas into the
upper MS Valley early in the period. By 12/00z this feature will
have advanced to a position from WI/eastern IA before ejecting into
the lower Great Lakes by daybreak Tuesday. Scattered convection
developed in response to this feature over southern MT Sunday
evening and this activity has advanced into western SD by 0530z.
Remnants of this activity will likely spread across the central
Plains into the mid MO Valley by the start of the day1 period.
Latest hr** members are not consistent regarding early-day intensity
with this activity but large-scale support aloft does favor
redevelopment later in the day as boundary-layer heating aids
destabilization. Latest model guidance suggests strong surface
heating will be noted ahead of the front from the TX
Panhandle-southeast KS-western IL. However, strongest forcing will
be at higher latitudes and scattered convection is expected to
develop across the Great Lakes then build southwest within veered
flow regime into IL ahead of the front. Prefrontal buoyancy is
expected to be fairly strong with MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg from
eastern KS toward the southern tip of Lake MI. Storms that form
within this air mass would likely pose some threat for damaging
winds and hail, especially from IL into lower MI where more
meaningful height falls will be noted. 

Farther southwest, intense surface heating ahead of the front across
the southern High Plains into KS will result in dry adiabatic lapse
rates in the lowest 3km as temperatures soar above 100F. High cloud
bases and low RH in the sub-cloud layer would seem to support at
least locally damaging winds with this late afternoon/early evening
convection.

..Darrow/Moore.. 07/11/2022