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Mesoscale Discussion 1438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Areas affected...parts of far eastern Texas into central Louisiana
and far southwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101953Z - 102130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible with the stronger
storm cores. A WW issuance is unlikely, with the severe threat
expected to be isolated.

DISCUSSION...c*nvective initiation is underway along a cold front
that is slowly sagging southward across eastern Texas into southern
Mississippi. With continued strong diurnal heating, thunderstorm
coverage should increase through the day. While tropospheric winds
should remain weak, the strong heating/mixing of a low-level air
mass, characterized by surface upper 70s F dewpoints beneath 8+ C/km
0-3 km lapse rates, will support 4000+ SBCAPE through the remainder
of the afternoon. As such, isolated robust thunderstorm downdrafts
may produce a couple of strong to potentially severe wind gusts.
Since the severe wind coverage is likely to remain sparse through
the afternoon, a WW issuance is not currently expected.

..Squitieri.. 07/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   30999492 31539377 31409165 31289027 31139003 30809026
            30559060 30439096 30329152 30339231 30419299 30449368
            30479415 30559453 30629475 30999492