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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

No changes needed to the ongoing forecast. Please see below for
meteorological discussion.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022/

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the Four Corners region will generally
limit surface pressure gradients across the western and central
CONUS. While a few localized concerns may emerge, the benign surface
regime will yield low potential for wind-driven fire weather
concerns. However, dry-thunderstorm chances will persist across the
Four Corners region, including central UT where fuels remain dry. 

...Utah/Dry Thunderstorms...
Monsoonal moisture, currently moving north into the region, will
linger into Monday afternoon and support another day of diurnal
thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings continue to show
thermodynamic profiles favorable for dry thunderstorms with nearly 3
km deep boundary layers and PWAT values near or below 0.75 inches.
Expected storm motions near 10 knots may allow for some wetting
rainfall, but peripheral dry strikes will be possible given isolated
storm coverage. Fuels across the region should remain receptive
despite the potential for a few pockets of rain on Sunday. 

...Southern High Plains...
A weak cold front is expected to push south across the southern
Plains through the day Monday. Ahead of the front, dry conditions
will prevail with 15-20% RH co*mon across eastern NM and west TX.
Latest ensemble guidance suggests that winds between 10-15 mph are
probable, but some locations may see sustained winds between 15-20
mph by late afternoon. As such, areas of fire weather conditions may
emerge, but confidence in the coverage and duration of this threat
is low. Additionally, recent rainfall has lowered regional ERCs
below the 80th percentile. 1 and 10 hour fuels may sufficiently dry
over the next 48 hours to support a low-end fire weather concern,
but confidence in the overall potential is too low for highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...