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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN IL/IN AND SOUTHWEST MI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage will be possible across
parts of the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday. Marginally severe
wind gusts and hail will be possible from the Ozarks
west-southwestward into the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant
cold front are forecast to move southeastward through portions of
the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes on Monday. Meanwhile, an upper
trough is forecast to move slowly westward across the Gulf of Mexico
and adjacent portions of the Gulf Coast region. An upper ridge will
build northward into the northern Rockies/High Plains, resulting in
quieter weather across Montana and the Dakotas co*pared to previous
days. 

...Mid MS Valley into parts of the Great Lakes...
One or more clusters of convection may be ongoing Monday morning
across parts of the Midwest and perhaps Great Lakes. The intensity
and organization with any such clusters remains uncertain, but some
localized damaging wind and/or hail threat may acco*pany these
clusters through the morning. Meanwhile, favorable deep-layer shear
will overspread parts of the mid MS Valley into the Great Lakes by
Monday afternoon/evening, in conjunction with the cold front. If
morning convection does not substantially disrupt destabilization
across the warm sector, then moderate to locally strong buoyancy may
develop near and south of the front by late afternoon. This will
result in a conditionally favorable severe thunderstorm environment
through the evening. Coverage of storms during the afternoon/evening
remains somewhat uncertain, with only a modest signal in recent
synoptic and CAM guidance, but frontal convergence and large-scale
ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough should
result in at least isolated development, with an attendant risk of
hail and damaging wind gusts. Some clustering of storms is possible
Monday night, potentially spreading a severe threat toward parts of
the lower Great Lakes by the end of the period. 

...Central/southern Rockies into KS/MO...
Very isolated strong thunderstorm development will be possible in
association with the front from MO into KS, though coverage is
expected to remain limited. Favorable shear and instability would
favor some hail/wind threat with any sustained storm in this regime.

To the west, greater storm coverage is expected from northeast NM
into south-central/southeast CO, within a post-frontal upslope
regime. Initial development is expected across the higher terrain,
though instability may be too limited for a severe hail threat with
initial discrete storms. Some clustering is possible with time as
storms spread into the lower elevations, where steep low-level lapse
rates will favor a threat of isolated severe wind gusts.

..Dean.. 07/10/2022