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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for strong/damaging thunderstorm winds may exist
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England on Thursday, and on
southward to the Southeast. Marginally severe hail also appears
possible in some areas.

...Synopsis...
As a strong upper low over the north-central U.S. Thursday morning
shifts gradually northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and into
western Ontario, the upper flow field across the western and central
U.S. will beco*e increasingly zonal/westerly.  In the East, weak
mid-level height falls will occur, as short-wave ridging is slowly
shunted eastward across the western Atlantic by the northeastward
advance of the aforementioned low.

At the surface, a cold front -- trailing southward from the triple
point of a deeply occluded surface low near Lake Superior at the
start of the period -- will advance east of the Appalachian Crest
during the morning, and across the East Coast states during the
afternoon.  By late evening the front will likely have cleared the
southern New England/Middle Atlantic coasts, lingering only across
the Southeast through the end of the period.

...Southern New England to the Southeast...
Thunderstorms -- and possibly a lingering severe risk -- will likely
be ongoing near coastal portions of the central Gulf Coast area at
the start of the period.  This convection is forecast to shift
gradually offshore through midday.

Meanwhile, modest diurnal destabilization is expected ahead of the
advancing cold front -- from the southern New England to the
Southeast -- as a seasonably moist (60s dewpoints) boundary-layer
airmass undergoes daytime heating.

Large-scale ascent is forecast to remain rather weak east of the
Appalachians, with the north-central U.S. upper low shifting
northeastward into western Ontario.  As such, only modest mid-level
height falls will overspread the East.  Still, weak ascent focused
along the surface cold front should support development of scattered
to isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.  

With the upper low remaining well to the northwest, the strongest
flow aloft will remain well to the cool side of the surface warm
sector.  However, with quasi-unidirectional west-southwesterly flow
through the lower half of the troposphere, potential for locally
organized/fast-moving storms and/or storm clusters appears to exist.
 The greatest potential for a few stronger cells -- capable of
producing a few strong/severe wind gusts -- appears to be most
likely over portions of southern New England and into parts of the
Mid-Atlantic region.  As such, a small SLGT risk area is being added
to this area.  Elsewhere, risk for wind -- and possibly marginal
hail -- appears lower, warranting maintenance of the existing MRGL
risk.

..Goss.. 04/13/2022