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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Valid 101700Z - 111200Z

The current forecast remains on track. No changes made.

... Western Kansas ...

Relative humidity is still forecast to fall into the low teens this
afternoon, with surface winds up to 20 mph, with gusts approaching
30 mph. However, fuel moisture should remain sufficiently high to
warrant a more widespread critical fire weather threat. Thus,
despite the possibility of brief, localized critical fire weather
conditions being achieved, no critical highlights have been added.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue across portions of the Great
Basin and northern Rockies amid breezy conditions and
dry-thunderstorm chances, but will also emerge across parts of
western KS and adjacent areas of CO and NE. 

...Idaho into Wyoming...
Recent upper-air observations and analyses show a diffuse cold front
draped across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies associated
with a passing mid-level wave. This feature will bring slightly
cooler temperatures to the region, but also induce 15-20 mph
westerly winds across the upper Snake River Plain in southeast ID as
well as across the Wyoming Basin. Wind gusts between 25-35 mph are
possible by early/mid afternoon as stronger mid-level flow mixes
down to the surface. Despite the cooler temperatures, poor moisture
recovery into the region and some degree of downslope flow
(especially through the Wyoming Basin) will result in the RH values
near 10-15%. Confidence remains high in several hours of elevated
conditions, but periodic critical conditions are possible for
wind-prone locations and where/when higher wind gusts occur.

...Utah/Dry-Thunderstorms...
Water-vapor imagery reveals a plume of monsoonal moisture advecting
northward through eastern NV and western AZ on the western periphery
of the mid-level ridge. This moisture was sampled well by the 00 UTC
FGZ sounding, and should reach UT/CO by early afternoon. While
forcing for ascent will be modest (and should limit the coverage of
storms), forecast soundings continue to show favorable thermodynamic
profiles for dry thunderstorms with 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE, deep,
well-mixed boundary layers, and PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.75
inches. Slow storm motions may limit the number of dry strikes, but
receptive fuels across the region warrant maintaining the
dry-thunderstorm risk.

...Western Kansas...
A lee trough noted in early-morning surface observations along the
High Plains is forecast to shift into the central Plains as an
attendant surface low migrates east into the upper MS River Valley.
This will augment the regional pressure gradient, resulting in
sustained surface winds up to 15-20 mph. Ensemble guidance shows a
strong signal for above-normal temperatures with afternoon highs
between 100-105 F for western KS. This will result in widespread RH
reduction to 10-20% by late afternoon. Although most fuels are only
modestly dry, 1 and 10 hour fuel moisture values between 5-10%
should support at least a low-end fire weather concern. A few
high-based thunderstorms are possible across northwest KS this
afternoon, and may result in gusty outflow winds across parts of the
Elevated risk area.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...