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Mesoscale Discussion 1435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Areas affected...central and eastern ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454...

Valid 101122Z - 101245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated gusts around 45-60 mph remain possible as storm
track east into eastern North Dakota the next couple of hours.
Sporadic large hail also may occur with the strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorm clusters continue to
shift east across ND early this morning. Some weakening has been
noted in latest radar imagery, as well as in decreasing lightning
trends and slight warming of cloud tops in IR satellite imagery.
However, a few observation sites have measured gusts around 45-60
mph over the past 30-60 minutes. Convection will likely continue to
gradually decrease in intensity with eastward extent as stronger
ascent associated with a weak midlevel shortwave impulse lifts north
of the international boarder. A moderately unstable airmass and
strong bulk shear will help to maintain periodically intense cells.
However, weaker low and midlevel flow along with strong MLCINH
should keep damaging wind potential more isolated co*pared to the
past few hours. A few strong to near-severe gusts will remain
possible with more intense thunderstorms the next couple of hours
before further weakening toward the ND/MN border occurs. Steep
midlevel lapse rates and adequate shear also may support isolated
large hail with more intense cells.

..Leitman.. 07/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   46720042 47870008 48749980 48759933 48539808 48139713
            47229682 46719691 46399736 46339911 46249993 46320042
            46720042