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Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINE IN THE SOUTHEAST

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage will be possible across
parts of the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday. Marginally severe
wind gusts and hail will be possible from the Ozarks
west-southwestward into the central High Plains.

...Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough will move east-southeastward across the
north-central states on Monday, as a cold front advances
southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A corridor of
maximized low-level moisture will exist ahead of the front, with
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. Moderate
instability is expected to develop along this corridor during the
afternoon, with convection initiating near the front during the
afternoon. A couple of clusters of storms are forecast to organize
in northeast Missouri and northwest Illinois, moving eastward across
parts of central and northern Illinois during the late afternoon and
early evening. NAM forecast soundings from northeast of St Louis to
near Chicago at 00Z/Tuesday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg
range, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. 0-3 km lapse rates of
7.5 to 8.0 C/km, along with veered low-level winds to the southwest,
should be favorable for line segments with wind-damage potential.

...Central Plains/Ozarks...
Northwest mid-level flow will be in place across the central Plains
on Monday, as a cold front moves southward into southeast Colorado,
southern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. A narrow axis of
instability will develop just to the south of the front, where
MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range during the
late afternoon. Although moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along
parts of the instability corridor, much of this is due to
directional shear through a deep layer. Low-level convergence along
the front will result in isolated thunderstorm development, with
convection persisting into the early evening. However, a lack of
speed shear in the low to mid-levels should keep storms unorganized.
The threats for wind damage and hail are expected to be marginal.

..Broyles.. 07/10/2022