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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
On Wednesday and Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
slowly eastward from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic coastal states.
 Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough both afternoons,
with most of the convection forming in the Carolinas and eastern
Gulf Coast States. Although the co*bination of instability and shear
is forecast to be marginal for severe storms, a few strong wind
gusts will be possible during the afternoon as low-level lapse rates
beco*e steep. A localized severe threat can not be ruled out either
day, in areas where moderate instability coincides with convective
development.

...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
Model forecasts have a large area of high pressure across much of
the western and central U.S. from Friday into Sunday. An upper-level
ridge is forecast across the northern Rockies on Friday, with
northwest mid-level flow located in the northern Plains. Although
large differences exist among the model solutions concerning
instability, a severe threat will be at least possible across parts
of the Dakotas and Minnesota Friday afternoon and evening. The
models suggest that much of the region will be capped during the day
 which should keep convective development relatively isolated during
the afternoon. 

On Saturday and Sunday, northwest mid-level flow continues across
the north-central U.S. A northwest-to-southeast axis of instability
is forecast to setup across parts of the Dakotas. Convective
development should remain isolated on those two days due to capping
issues. However, an isolated severe threat will be possible if a
convective cluster can beco*e organized along the northern edge of
the cap either Saturday evening or Sunday evening. Uncertainty is
substantial concerning the magnitude and spatial extent of any
potential severe threat.