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Mesoscale Discussion 1431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Areas affected...central and eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452...

Valid 100012Z - 100315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452
continues.

SUMMARY...A substantial severe threat will evolve this evening
across central and eastern Montana, with destructive winds and hail
expected. A new watch is likely east of WW 452.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase in intensity and coverage
over central MT, with several cells now exhibiting a
rightward/eastward motion as of 00Z. As height falls with the
shortwave trough continue this evening, low-level easterlies will
increase, with 850 mb winds providing moist storm relative inflow.
As this occurs, an MCS may eventually materialize, with a threat of
wind-driven hail and damaging winds. Individual cells may also
produce very large hail in excess of 2.00" diameter. The very steep
lapse rates aloft co*bined with strong shear should maintain the
severe threat beyond 06Z despite small boundary-layer inhibition
from cooling, eventually entering ND later tonight.

..Jewell.. 07/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   48491092 49000936 49010403 46200404 46241004 46451120
            46831159 47541159 48491092