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Mesoscale Discussion 1428
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Areas affected...Far East-Central ID...Southwestern/Western MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 092037Z - 092230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected over the next
few hours. Initially more discrete storms could produce large hail
and strong wind gusts, with a transition to more of a linear mode
anticipated later.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent attendant to a shortwave trough
moving northeastward through the northern Great Basin continues to
spread across the northern Rockies. This ascent is interacting with
the moderately moist air mass in place over the northern Rockies,
contributing building cumulus across the high terrain. Steep
mid-level lapse rates are also in place (sampled well by the 19Z TFX
sounding), resulting in at least moderate buoyancy throughout the
region. Convective initiation has already occurred over far
east-central ID, and the expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to
increase over adjacent southwestern MT over the next hour or two. 

co*bination of ascent, strong vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk
shear 45-50 kt), and moderate buoyancy (generally less than 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE) is forecast to result in organized storms, including
a few discrete supercells capable of large hail and/or strong wind
gusts. Isolated instances of very large hail are possible. Upscale
growth is anticipated later this evening as storm outflow
amalgamates. When this occurs, the  probability for strong wind
gusts will increase, including the potential for a few significant
wind gusts.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/09/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...

LAT...LON   44931396 45191475 45791519 46641526 47341475 47881348
            48081123 47091033 45801081 44941248 44931396