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Mesoscale Discussion 1427
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Areas affected...Central/northern MS/AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 091948Z - 092115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this
afternoon. Isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts are expected to
be the main threat. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection is gradually increasing across parts of
northern MS/AL this afternoon, along and ahead of a weak cold front
that is sagging southward across the area, and also near an outflow
boundary across northeast AL. While midlevel lapse rates are
generally weak, substantial heating of a very moist boundary layer
has resulted in MLCAPE increasing to 2000-3500 J/kg across the
region. Deep-layer flow is also weak, though a slight enhancement to
midlevel northwesterly flow associated with a weak upper trough may
provide sufficient shear for some loosely organized cells/clusters
as storms evolve this afternoon. Large PW and steep low-level lapse
rates will support a threat of isolated wet microbursts with initial
discrete convection. A somewhat greater threat of scattered damaging
wind may develop later this afternoon into the early evening, as
storm and outflow mergers occur and one or more loosely organized
clusters move southward with time. Watch issuance remains possible
this afternoon in order to cover this potential damaging wind
threat.

..Dean/Thompson.. 07/09/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34179065 34689023 34798941 34808873 34798823 34798786
            34688727 34508613 34068597 33288608 32668651 32649076
            33439079 34179065