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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated very large hail and significant outflow gusts are possible
tonight across Montana.

...MT...

While heights are broadly rising across the Rockies, an apparent
weak disturbance is ejecting northeast within stronger flow across
ID/western MT. This feature is likely contributing to scattered
convection that initiated over the higher terrain but is now
spreading toward lower elevations to the north-east of GTF. 00z
sounding from TFX exhibited very steep surface-3km lapse rates but
moisture is somewhat lacking, and that is reflected in SBCAPE less
than 1000 J/kg. However, boundary layer moisture/instability are
quite a bit higher just east of GTF where dew points are in the
50s/60s. 00z sounding from GGW was very unstable with 3300 J/kg
SBCAPE and adequate shear for organized rotating updrafts. Some
increase in 850mb flow will be noted across eastern MT/western
Dakotas this evening, and this should contribute to further eastward
propagation of strong/severe storms across the Plains toward
northeast MT later tonight.

..Darrow.. 07/09/2022