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Mesoscale Discussion 1418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast Wyoming into north-northeast
Colorado and extreme western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 082018Z - 082245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated bouts of large hail or severe gusts may acco*pany
the stronger storms. The severe threat is expected to remain
isolated, and a WW issuance seems unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Multicells/brief transient supercells have attempted to
beco*e established along the lee of the higher terrain along the
central Rockies in southeast WY over the past hour, with some of the
last MRMS MESH frames showing hail approaching the 1 inch range. 20Z
mesoanalysis and some of the latest RAP forecast soundings depict
8-9 C/km tropospheric lapse rates, contributing to 1500+ J/kg
MLCAPE. Modest veering through the troposphere supports 30+ kts of
effective bulk shear, with high-based multicells/transient
supercells expected to increase in coverage and intensity this
afternoon given the buoyant but dry boundary layer in place. The
steep low and mid-level lapse rates amid some appreciable shear
suggest that large hail is possible with the stronger storms, though
severe gusts are also possible. However, forecast soundings show the
majority of CAPE constrained above 600 mb via tall, skinny
thermodynamic profiles. When also considering weak synoptic forcing,
storm coverage should remain relatively sparse, and a WW issuance is
not expected.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39760551 41030563 41390564 41770573 42070574 42270567
            42450544 42440485 42290430 41880366 41240337 40370334
            39720344 39470363 39260421 39220468 39330506 39760551