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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon and
evening mainly from Montana into North Dakota, with damaging wind
and hail treat. Marginally severe storms may also occur from parts
of Texas into much of the Southeast, with locally damaging wind
gusts.

...MT into ND...
The upper ridge over MT will break down during the afternoon, with
storms initiating over southwest MT around 21Z. Deep-layer shear
will be strong at 50-60 kt, and will support rapidly moving bows and
supercells. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates which will
further support hail threat and forward propagation within the
uncapped air mass. CAMs suggest a severe bow may materialize late in
the day and continue into ND overnight. Both significant hail and
wind will be possible as storms evolve into the better low-level
moisture.

...Eastern ND/northwest MN...
Warming will occur throughout the day with southerly winds and
temporary upper ridging. Capping will inhibit storms for much of the
day, but persistent lift from warm advection may yield a few severe
cells across far northeast ND and northwest MN. SRH in this area
will favor supercells, and a tornado cannot be ruled out as well
with any southeastward-moving supercells in the 21-03Z time frame. 

...TX eastward into the Southeast...
A weak cold front will extend from TX eastward across the TN Valley
and into VA during the afternoon, with substantial moisture and
instability from the lower MS Valley eastward. Here, scattered
storms will develop in the unstable and uncapped air mass during the
afternoon, with various clustering of storms possible throughout the
day. Strong outflow winds, including isolated severe gusts, will be
possible. 

Farther west into TX, this area will be under the upper ridge, with
temperatures above 100 F. A band of moisture associated with the
front will likely erupt into scattered storms after 21Z, with MUCAPE
on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Storms will be pulse in nature, but
a few could produce damaging downbursts with around 1500 J/kg DCAPE.

..Jewell.. 07/08/2022