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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the Upper Midwest Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Upper Midwest...
Mid-level heights will fall across the north-central U.S. on Sunday
as a shortwave trough approaches the northern Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across
the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the
mid and upper 60s F, will likely result in moderate to strong
instability from parts of the Dakotas South Dakota into western and
central Minnesota. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop along and ahead of the front. These storms are forecast
to move eastward across the eastern Dakotas into central and
northern Minnesota, during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM
and GFS forecast soundings for 00Z/Monday along the instability
axis, have 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 knot range suggesting that
convection should beco*e organized. This, co*bined with 700-500 mb
lapse rates in the 7.0 to 8.0 C/km range, should be favorable for
isolated supercells with large hail. A wind damage threat is also
expected to develop, with supercells and persistent line segments.
For this scenario, there is still uncertainty concerning the
distribution of instability. However, the models are in enough
agreement concerning the severe potential on Sunday, that a slight
risk will be continued across parts of the eastern Dakotas into
Minnesota.

..Broyles.. 07/08/2022