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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to
move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Monday, and into the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F should result in the
development of a pocket of moderate instability both Monday and
Tuesday afternoon. A severe threat could develop each afternoon
within this pocket of instability, where deep-layer shear should be
strong enough for organized storms. The main uncertainties for
Monday and Tuesday are the speed of the upper-level trough and
magnitude of instability ahead of the front. Once the models beco*e
more consistent concerning these to two factors, a 15 percent
contour may be needed across parts of the upper Mississippi or Ohio
Valleys for either Monday or Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the models move the upper-level trough into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. The cold front is forecast to advance
southeastward into the western part of the southern and central
Appalachians. Instability and deep-layer shear are forecast to be
weaker ahead of the front on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms that develop
during the afternoon, along and ahead of the front, may have a
marginal wind-damage threat. Uncertainty is again substantial for
Wednesday.

...On Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
The upper-level is forecast to move through the Appalachians on
Thursday. Thunderstorms may develop ahead of the trough Thursday
afternoon, in parts of the southern Atlantic coastal states. An
upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the north-central
states on Thursday, where moderate instability could develop in the
afternoon. Thunderstorms that form within the stronger instability,
could have an isolated severe threat. But uncertainty is substantial
concerning the positioning of the instability axis, and convective
coverage. If a severe threat does develop, the expectation is that
it would remain localized.

On Friday, a moist airmass is forecast across parts of the
north-central U.S., but model solutions differ substantially on the
positioning of the strongest instability. Solutions that are further
northwest, have a severe potential in North Dakota, while solutions
further southeast, have Iowa and southeast Minnesota with the
greatest potential. At this time, model variance is too great to
warrant adding a threat area from Thursday into Friday.