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SPC MD 1413

SPC MD 1413

[html]MD 1413 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 447... FOR CENTRAL MT
       
MD 1413 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1413
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Areas affected...central MT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447...

Valid 080012Z - 080215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will possible with the more intense
storms for the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows two clusters over central MT with
some of the storms exhibiting supercell characteristics.  Surface
conditions early this evening show temperatures in the 80s with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 deg F.  The RAP sounding for
Lewistown, MT shows a very steep lapse rate profile (surface through
300 mb; 8 deg C/km).  Easterly low-level flow beneath moderate
westerly mid- to high-level flow is yielding effective shear around
35 kt.  Until more coalescing of cold pools occurs, the risk for
large hail will be the primary severe threat.  Once storm outflow
beco*es more prevalent, the risk for severe gusts will likely
increase.

..Smith.. 07/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   48121004 47130834 46650811 46220868 46010908 47311102
            47631122 48081086 48121004


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Source: SPC MD 1413 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1413.html)