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Mesoscale Discussion 1412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Areas affected...north-central GA...central SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072153Z - 080000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts (45-60 mph) are possible
with the more intense downdrafts.  Pockets of wind damage may result
through 8 pm EDT.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and 10-km CAPPI reflectivity data show a
line segment with embedded stronger cellular cores straddling the
GA/SC border in between Clemson, SC and Augusta, GA as of 550pm EDT.
A gust front/cold pool extends westward towards the greater Atlanta
metro area.  All of this activity is slowly moving to the southeast
due to weak westerly to northwesterly steering flow in the mid to
high levels.  RAP forecast soundings show steep 0-2 km lapse rates
beneath a tall/skinny CAPE profile and PW around 2.33 inches.  As
such, expecting water-loaded downdrafts to at least not be inhibited
due to the steep low-level lapse rates over the next several hours. 
Several of the more intense downdrafts/microbursts will be capable
of isolated gusts in the 45-60 mph range, likely sufficient for
pockets of wind damage.

..Smith/Hart.. 07/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   33858423 33758255 34128178 33958125 33618117 33238163
            33198309 33398422 33588465 33778466 33858423