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Mesoscale Discussion 1411
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0436 PM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072136Z - 072330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will be capable of severe winds, and perhaps
sporadic hail, through the evening hours. However, storm longevity
is expected to be limited, which should negate the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm clusters are now apparent moving
off the higher terrain of the central Rockies and Black Hills from
northeast CO into southwest SD. Wind gusts over 40 mph and half-inch
hail have been reported within the past hour with some of this
activity, and strong wind gusts are possible as these storms
continue to meander via outflow-driven propagation through an air
mass with low-level lapse rates between 8.5 to 9.5 C/km (per recent
RAP analyses). Although instability and effective shear are limited
in proximity to the terrain features, as storms migrate
east/southeast they may encounter richer low-level moisture
supportive of deeper parcel trajectories and slightly stronger
effective bulk shear (possibly up to 25 knots) that may encourage
some storm organization. However, confidence in this scenario
remains low; isolated severe wind gusts and sporadic hail appears to
be the most likely scenario through the evening hours. As such,
watch issuance is not expected.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39480432 40490424 40970428 41470475 42520471 43250449
            43610412 43850371 43750325 43340262 42540229 41330199
            40310199 39510222 39220254 38970298 38950346 39020407
            39480432